Month: March 2014

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Hard Choices

I can’t believe the incredibly stupid and counterproductive political and religious bickering going on around the world right now while the planet is in the midst of an epic environmental crisis. Hard choices must be made now by all of us, and not just the politicians in the USA, Russia, China, India, and elsewhere. The U.N. seems to be worthless in promoting a sense of urgency about the real issues facing the human race: 

Who gets the water? 

Who gets the food? 

Who gets to live? 

Who gets to die? 

Who gets to reproduce? 

Who gets to work for money? 

Who gets to be state-supported menial laborers? 

Who gets an advanced education? 

Who gets to be artists, musicians, poets and writers? 

Who must teach? 

Who can be a student? 

Who can live without contributing anything to society & why? 

How and where can humans live as an organized society? 

How much of the planet must we set aside for other species? 

How do we maintain conditions for life on the surface of the Earth? 

How do we adapt civilization to maintain the thermal balance of the planet? 

Where do we go from here in advancing human culture and society? 

What practices in human history should we continue or abandon? 

These are just some of the questions we have to develop answers and solutions for within the next ten to fifteen years. One thing is for sure: We can no longer afford the luxury of warfare to settle disputes. Soon, our dwindling resources and waste products will make this impossible. And, the added pollution/disruption of the environment from the willy-nilly application of technology to solving immediate crisis must come to a screeching halt. 

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  Oil on Canvas by Thomas Cole 1848 –One artist’s vision of an earthly paradise

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Russia is not the Soviet Union

I had to laugh at the recent comments by U.S. Senator John McCain, who observed that “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country”. Well, this comment is true to a degree; the economy of Russia is nearly totally dependent on oil and gas exports. And now, Vladimir Putin is in the process of bankrupting the country. His recent sneaky annexation of the Crimea region of the Ukraine and the occupation of a portion of the country of Georgia reveals his personal geopolitical ambitions, but his big problem is that he is a lousy poker player. The USA holds the stronger hand in the game he is playing, and has in fact, stacked the deck. 

Russia cannot fight and win a conventional war with us. The country lacks the infrastructure it enjoyed in the Stalinist era as provided by the Soviet satellite countries; has little experience with the battlefield technologies of modern warfare,  and has repeatedly demonstrated ‘Me Too’ weapons systems developments going back to the end of World War II. It is wishful thinking for Putin to consider America as weakened by a decade of warfare; on the contrary, we are a sharpened sword, honed in bloody battle, and have little patience for dictators, terrorists, and puppet masters.

 

The great danger to the USA is that Russia would burn through its resources feeding the battlefield logistics pipeline in a hurry, and believe it must use nuclear weapons—the weapon that is not a weapon at all but a suicide pill. I am hopeful that cooler heads will prevail in Russia. The citizens there have had a taste of democracy and the free enterprise system, and regardless of how corrupt they are in application at present, they would be sorely missed. While a minority of the population pines for the old days of Joseph Stalin, what they really long for is the stability and predictability of the old government and its system of handouts.

 

Hopefully, the newly created class of wealthy business owners in Russia will take charge of the government rather than vice-versa. They had better do it soon. Maybe seeing 50 billion dollars of good will created by the Sochi Olympics vaporizing before their eyes will propel them into action. They should also consider that Putin got his political education during his time with the KGB in East Germany.

 

I also think the European Union shares some blame here; both Georgia and the Ukraine lobbied to join the E.U. repeatedly and were snubbed, for whatever reason. This created the opportunities that Putin has exploited in hopes of restoring some sort of Slavic union of countries to counter the West and its growing integration of commerce and political systems.

 

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Spring has sprung in Salt Lake City

My main objective with this post is to see if the functionality of my blog here on Vivaldi.net is working “as advertised”. With that said, my home is a few thousand feet below a wilderness area that overlooks the Salt Lake Valley. At this time of year, many people gather at the mouth of the canyon to look through binoculars and spotting  telescopes at the herd of Mountain Goats that live year-round among the high peaks of the Wasatch Mountains. This is what they see:

 

What is not seen are the Mountain Lions (Cougar) that feed on them when they are not eating the neighborhood dogs and cats. In a few weeks, the rattlesnakes will be coming out of their winter hidey-holes, along with the Voles, Raccoons, a pack of Coyotes that serenade us sometimes in the evening (especially when the Moon is full), and  a  small herd of Mule Deer than come down out of the White Pine forests to eat the neighbor’s shrubs.

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Getting prepared for a crisis

 Many of the dire scenarios that I have discussed in blog posts going back to 2006 (on Opera) seem to be coalescing right on schedule, and some have substantially compressed the timeframes that I had forecast.

The next three-five years may be as difficult as any since the Great Depression, and many people are in denial about its potential for major long-term disruptions in our lives. You still have time to erect some barricades against the storm, when gasoline is as expensive in the USA as it is in Great Britain (currently about $10 USD per gallon), and food prices rise to the point that massive social disorder occurs.

Assuming that you have a secure home or apartment that is affordable on your present income, you should consider fattening your larder for these troubled times. This includes not only food items, but potable water & water purification products, medicines, First Aid items, hygiene products such as soap, toothpaste, toilet paper, and common disposables such as disinfectant (bleach, Hydrogen Peroxide), paper towels (or a huge rag bag), linens, and so forth.

 The goal here is to provide these necessities for your family for a two-year period without resorting to retail outlets or shops. Do not fall for the myth that the government can take care of you in the form of handouts or breadlines. Do not expect to stand safely in line at the grocery store while you compete for scarce items on the shelf. Instead, think of the TV images of Mogadishu (throwing out bags of food from a speeding Jeep, while ducking gunfire), or perhaps Darfur, where you don’t dare to venture outside at all. 

In this scenario, your home will literally be your castle and fortress, so think through what you will need to support your continued existence in one place (hopefully, you won’t have to join the migrants that are dumpster-diving, or one of the gangs of ruffians that will roam the streets). 

Maybe things won’t get this bad, but hey, you never can tell. Buying and having these things on hand will be a much better investment than that new hybrid car, a growing bank account, or the latest fashion fad.  With this in mind, here are some fun facts about the shelf life of these items that, while relatively inexpensive now, may become worth their weight in Gold. I am not the author of the following table. It was in my miscellaneous papers, and I can’t provide proper attribution.

 Average Shelf Life 

Below is a chart to help you determine the shelf life of food stored in air-tight containers at constant temperature of 70 degrees.  All of the following products will store proportionally longer at cooler temperatures if kept at lower storage temperatures. Shelf life of 30+ years is perfectly feasible for many products!

 

Years

 

Years

 

Years

Apples

30

 

 

 

 

Adzuki Beans

8 – 10

Gluten 

5

Powder Eggs 

15

Alfalfa Seeds

8

Granola

5

Powder Milk 

20

All Purpose Flour

15

Lima/Red Beans

15

Quinoa

8

Bakers Flour

15

Groats

8

Refried Beans 

5

Barley

10

Hard Red Wheat

25 – 30

Ribbons

8 – 15

Black Turtle Beans

15 – 20

Hard White Wheat

25 – 30

Rolled Oats

30

Blackeye Beans

15 -20

Honey, Salt and Sugar

Indefinitely

Rye

8

Broccoli

8 – 10

Hulled Oats 

30

Small Red Beans

8 – 10

Brown Rice

6

Kamut

8 – 12

Soft wheat

25

Buckwheat

15

Kidney Beans

20

Soy Beans

8 – 10

Butter/margarine Powder

15

Lentils

20

Spaghetti

15 -20

Cabbage

8 – 10

Lima Beans

20

Special bakery wheat

25

Carrots

8 – 10

Macaroni

15 – 20

Spelt 

12

Celery

8 – 10

Millet

8 – 12

Sprouting Seeds

4-5

Cheese Powder

15

Mixes 

5 – 10

Triticale

8 – 12

Cocoa Powder

15

Morning Moo 

10

TVP

15 – 20

Corn

8 – 12

Mung Beans

8 – 10

Unbleached Flour

5

Cornmeal

5

Noodles

8 – 10

Wheat flakes

15

Cracked wheat

25

Onions

8 – 12

Whey Powder 

15

Durham Wheat

8 – 12

Peanut Butter Powder

4 – 5

White Flour 

5

Flax

8 – 12

Pearled Oats

10

White Rice

8 – 10

Fruit

5

Peppers

8 – 12

Whole Wheat Flour 

5

Garbanzo Beans

15 – 20

Pink Beans

20 – 30

Yeast

2

Garden Seeds

4

Pinto Beans

20 – 30

 

 

Germade

5

Potatoes (flakes, slices, dices)

20 – 30

 

 

 

Predicting actual shelf life of dehydrated foods is not an exact science, however there have been many studies done.  In addition to the above average shelf life of food stored at a constant 70 degrees, you can dramatically increase your life expectancy by lowering the constant temperature.  It is possible to double, triple or even quadruple the shelf life by lowering the temperature proportionally. 

 A year supply of basic food storage for one person (400 lb wheat, 60 lb dry beans, 60 lb sugar, 16 lb powdered milk, 10 qt cooking oil, 8 lb salt) provides adequate calories but is lacking in calcium as well as vitamins A, C, B12, and E. Vitamins A and C can be found in canned or bottled fruits and vegetables as well as in some fruit drink mixes. Most vitamin C is destroyed during dehydration of fruits and vegetables, but some vitamin A remains. Good sources of vitamin A include canned pumpkin and dehydrated carrots. Vitamin B12 comes from animal sources and can be found in canned meats and jerky. Calcium comes mainly from dairy products such as powdered milk, hot cocoa mix, and pudding mix (containing dried milk). Vitamin E is found in fats and oils and can be found in nuts such as sunflower seeds and almonds. 

Fresh water can be stored for considerable periods (measured in years) if you add about a teaspoon of bleach to every gallon of water. Worse case, you can boil the stuff and get rid of the flat taste by pouring it from one container to another a few times after boiling. 55 gallon plastic, non-evaporative storage containers can be purchased new, for about $30 USD. You will use far more water than you imagine in the course of daily living. Plan on storing at least 200-300 gallons. 

 Since the entire idea of a food storage program is that it should be available for you and yours in times of need, it is important to understand the conditions that can affect the edibles stored in your pantry.

 A storage program is only as good as the quality of the food that goes into it. It cannot get any better than what originally went in, but it can certainly get worse. In the fullness of time, all stored foods will degrade in nutrients and palatability until they reach the inevitable end where even the dog won’t eat them. It’s because of this eventuality that every article, book, and teacher concerned with putting food by gives the same advice: Date all food containers and rotate, Rotate, ROTATE.

 The first food in should be the first food out. This concept is often shortened to the acronym FIFO. This will allow you to also store the foods you like to eat (with a limited shelf-life) as well as the foods that merely keep you alive. And don’t forget the yeast and baking powder.

 Ideally, your storage location should have a humidity level of 15% or less, but unless you live in the desert it’s not likely you’ll be able to achieve this. Regardless, moisture is not good for your dry stored edibles so you want to minimize it as much as possible. This can be done by several methods. The first is to keep the area air-conditioned and/or dehumidified during the humid times of the year. The second is to use packaging impervious to moisture and then to deal with the moisture trapped inside. If you are able, there’s no reason not to use both.

All containers should be kept off the floor and out of direct contact from exterior walls to reduce the chances of condensation brought on by temperature differences between the container and the surface it’s resting against.

 So, the storage rules are:

 First In, First Out (FIFO) means rotating your storage

Cooler is better

 Drier is better

 Less oxygen exposure means more shelf life, so make sure the containers are SEALED.

 Don’t shed light on your food.

 Think of rotating your food storage as paying your food insurance premiums — slacking off on rotation cuts back on your coverage. Is your food insurance up to date?

 Are you ready for unexpected natural disasters like this?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Automated Battlefield

 Recently, I read a UPI story about a new development at the Lockheed Martin Company. Forget the flying saucers they may be building at the Skunkworks, and consider these words in the report: 

“A wireless ground sensor network by Lockheed Martin will soon possess the capability of integration with unmanned aerial vehicles, the company said Monday. 

The ground sensor system is SPAN, or Self-Powered Ad-hoc Network. It is incorporated with small devices that harvest energy from its surrounding environment, re-charges itself and only transmits when there is a sensor reading of concern.”
 Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2013/10/22/Ground-sensor-system-to-link-with-UAVs/UPI-22361382453158/#ixzz2iSrA0pME 

These palm-sized devices might use plug & play ASICs to expand functionality to include very elaborate sensors tuned to human body heat, smelling devices, vibration sensors, video cameras, CBR detectors, and so forth. In addition to “Harvesting energy from its surrounding environment”, the SPAN sensors could also include tiny fuel cells such as those manufactured by Neah Power Systems, Inc. All of the sensors then networked together could pass information-enriched messages back and forth at a high duty cycle not only to the drones flying high overhead. Imagine much higher, a solar-powered blimp drifting nearly as high as some low-orbit satellites, containing a two-man crew and a battle management supercomputer that controls and directs network activities and drone formations below the cloud layers. 

All of a sudden, we have the prospect of two human Airmen controlling a very large area on the ground, drawing on robotic firepower as needed to maintain their control. The battlefield can become mobile, if required, through the addition of a robotic logistics pipeline. 

With image processing in the flying supercomputer and raw image and other data provided from the sensors scattered below, nothing will live on the battlefield without permission from above. Worst case, with the whole business shot to hell in battle, only two human lives are lost.  Call me an old dreamer, but I like the idea a lot, because it removes more of our warriors from the conflict arena and might actually save some money in the process.

Image Courtesy of the Lockheed Martin Co.

 

 

 

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Time to take off the rose-colored glasses

The fact is, Humanity is faced with three converging existential crises: 

 A: Climate change resulting in permanent relocation of the Jet Stream to new latitudes and changes in deep-ocean convection currents as well as the release of massive amounts of Methane Hydrates in the Arctic/Siberian Tundra and the oceans around the world. The possibility is strong that thermal rebalancing around the planet will render much of it uninhabitable. 

 B: The increasing pollution of very limited potable water sources coupled with desertification of former agricultural regions as a result of global industrial civilization, and the melt-off of mountain glaciers that used to store water. 

 C: The tremendous planetary over-population of humanity and its demands for further mineral resources and economic output to support a nearly logarithmic population growth projected to peak around 2050; at which time, the odds are good for totally collapse of the global ecosystem. It has already started in the oceans; witness the death of over 70% of the reefs and estuary nurseries. It cannot be denied that life on land depends on life in the oceans.

 

 Even now, North America, Europe, and regions in Asia are seeing mass migrations of people unable to find jobs or even food to eat, and the age-old paradigm of having many children to support aged parents is now a shattered dream of the past, never to return. While it may be possible to deal with one or several of these developing disasters, we are unlikely to be able to deal with all of them without a synchronized and very dramatic effort by humanity as a whole, and a lot of luck.

 

 The foregoing implies the urgent need for a planetary government enthusiastically supported by all of humanity to coordinate repairs and responses. It is obvious that the U.N. model is insufficient to the task at hand. It used to be that the world saw the United States as the ‘Global Policeman’ and a generous benefactor through such mechanisms as the Marshall Plan, and Foreign Aid. 

In my humble opinion, this is no longer possible, and the strong country we used to have is now a mirage. Setting aside the new and austere budget of the Defense Department, here is why:

 

The so–called economic growth since the recession that started in 2008 is totally the result of government spending. In point of fact, private-sector spending is where it was almost 13 years ago, accompanied by no growth in median real income and no growth since 2000 in the actual number of jobs, even as population grew by 30 million. Therefore, because the government soon will not be allowed by our foreign creditors to continue the financial hat trick of printing more money to stimulate the economy, without private sector growth our domestic gross product (GDP) will drop accordingly.


In essence, we will be in for a very long-term recession once again. There are no magic spending cuts that the government might undertake that will cure this problem, and even tax increases that would be suicide for the politicians, won’t do the trick. They would simply bankrupt small businesses and the few folks that have been able to keep their heads above water in this economy.

 

The long and the short of it is that there are no quick fixes. Meanwhile our population keeps growing and more kids will come out of college unable to find work.

 
Five percent of the nation’s workers are not paying income, Social Security, or Medicare taxes. Many of them are on food stamps and unemployment compensation, which are driving deficits at the federal and state levels higher. At the same time commodity prices are skyrocketing, driving up food costs and drying up discretionary spending by average people. In general, there will be inflation in the things we need and deflation in the things we want (they will go unsold). So, the success of companies such as Apple with its iPod/iPad products will be short-lived.

 

 Wages and salaries are about 50% of total personal income (other sources of personal income are benefits, interest, dividends, etc.). This is the largest bucket of income that produces revenue for the government via our tax structure. As wages and salaries are currently the engine of support for the government’s social programs, these must soon collapse. They include food stamps, social security, healthcare, and so forth.

 
The impact of climate change will magnify this dilemma in ways we can’t foresee too well at present. As a further example, if the Thermohaline circulation of the world’s oceans (like the Gulf Stream) is disrupted, then most of Europe and Asia (and also the northern USA and Canada) will quickly return to ice ages; much like the Younger Dryas event at around 11,000 BP. This resulted in a mini-Ice Age that lasted about 1400 years.

 

One thing is for sure, the USA is not alone as a nation of soon-to-be paupers; the sovereign debt crises seen in the Eurozone and elsewhere are spreading to other countries as I write this. Throw in the social turmoil such as we are seeing in the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas and things are going to get pretty dire for everyone quickly.

 
While we applaud the citizens that are uprising against dictatorship in favor of new democratic governments, nothing is being said about the massive destruction to these countries’ infrastructures as we are witnessing in Libya & Syria. Even under the best of conditions, it will take years to recover (if ever). Countries such as Egypt, which depend on tourism, are going to get even more destitute and desperate.

 
I wish I could see some dynamic that would change this dismal picture, but my crystal ball is totally inadequate to the task. I’m just not smart enough. All I can suggest is that people focus on helping one another where they can, and try to anticipate the arrows of misfortune that are headed their way. This means spending wisely, and hunkering down to weather the storm. If the USA gets sucked into regional wars again, we must make the losers pay for them out of what is left of their national treasure. We can no longer afford to give countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan a free ride.

 

If we are lucky, when the storm clouds dissipate, they will reveal a world that is very different from the one we are used to, and if people have been wise in the interim, it will be configured to avoid the mistakes of the past. We have made bad choices as a country for decades, and now it seems we have to pay the price.

 

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Gender Confusion

One of the nice things about getting extremely old is that you can get away with almost anything. As an example, I can crowd in the front of the line at the market’s checkout stand, demand my 10% senior’s discount, and openly ogle the large-breasted women waiting in the cue. So far, people grumble under their breath, but no one has tried to beat me up yet. I consider myself lucky in this regard, and will continue my bad behavior for as long as I can.  However, I have to tell my readers of this new blog that I am pushing the envelope in an entirely new direction. 

You see, after many years of pretending I was straight, I can now admit my sexual orientation: I am a lesbian in a man’s body.  This insight scuttled across my brain like a lizard over a hot rock a few weeks ago at the health club where I work out.

 

 Now, I know many of you are dealing with the issue of ‘Gay Rights’ in the military, a subject that never arose during my service in the U.S. Air Force. This is not to say that I did not serve with Gay people. I’m sure there were some, and I feel badly for them as those who were found out suffered a lot or were kicked out of the service. I have no objection to people exercising their right to be themselves, and in today’s world, I’m glad they can freely exercise their rights without censure; except for marriage—a subject where the jury is still out. In my home state of Utah, the citizens are fighting this concept tooth and nail. 

 I think the best solution is a civil union for Gay people, with all of the rights enjoyed by married folks that goes by a different name, such as being ‘United in Love’. But, I digress. 

 My new insight has created a problem for me at the gym. After I realized that I was actually a lesbian in a man’s body, all of my recent lewd behavior toward the women working out, especially the 18-year old blondes, became explainable. Previously, I had attributed it to simply being a ‘dirty old man’. Unfortunately, whenever I try to exercise my rights by going into the ladies rooms at the gym to shower, get dressed, or soak in the hot tub, they all scream and run, tossing tennis shoes and dirty linen at me like I’m some kind of freak. 

 I’m very confused, and need some guidance here.