The fact is, Humanity is faced with three converging existential crises:
A: Climate change resulting in permanent relocation of the Jet Stream to new latitudes and changes in deep-ocean convection currents as well as the release of massive amounts of Methane Hydrates in the Arctic/Siberian Tundra and the oceans around the world. The possibility is strong that thermal rebalancing around the planet will render much of it uninhabitable.
B: The increasing pollution of very limited potable water sources coupled with desertification of former agricultural regions as a result of global industrial civilization, and the melt-off of mountain glaciers that used to store water.
C: The tremendous planetary over-population of humanity and its demands for further mineral resources and economic output to support a nearly logarithmic population growth projected to peak around 2050; at which time, the odds are good for totally collapse of the global ecosystem. It has already started in the oceans; witness the death of over 70% of the reefs and estuary nurseries. It cannot be denied that life on land depends on life in the oceans.
Even now, North America, Europe, and regions in Asia are seeing mass migrations of people unable to find jobs or even food to eat, and the age-old paradigm of having many children to support aged parents is now a shattered dream of the past, never to return. While it may be possible to deal with one or several of these developing disasters, we are unlikely to be able to deal with all of them without a synchronized and very dramatic effort by humanity as a whole, and a lot of luck.
The foregoing implies the urgent need for a planetary government enthusiastically supported by all of humanity to coordinate repairs and responses. It is obvious that the U.N. model is insufficient to the task at hand. It used to be that the world saw the United States as the ‘Global Policeman’ and a generous benefactor through such mechanisms as the Marshall Plan, and Foreign Aid.
In my humble opinion, this is no longer possible, and the strong country we used to have is now a mirage. Setting aside the new and austere budget of the Defense Department, here is why:
The so–called economic growth since the recession that started in 2008 is totally the result of government spending. In point of fact, private-sector spending is where it was almost 13 years ago, accompanied by no growth in median real income and no growth since 2000 in the actual number of jobs, even as population grew by 30 million. Therefore, because the government soon will not be allowed by our foreign creditors to continue the financial hat trick of printing more money to stimulate the economy, without private sector growth our domestic gross product (GDP) will drop accordingly.
In essence, we will be in for a very long-term recession once again. There are no magic spending cuts that the government might undertake that will cure this problem, and even tax increases that would be suicide for the politicians, won’t do the trick. They would simply bankrupt small businesses and the few folks that have been able to keep their heads above water in this economy.
The long and the short of it is that there are no quick fixes. Meanwhile our population keeps growing and more kids will come out of college unable to find work.
Five percent of the nation’s workers are not paying income, Social Security, or Medicare taxes. Many of them are on food stamps and unemployment compensation, which are driving deficits at the federal and state levels higher. At the same time commodity prices are skyrocketing, driving up food costs and drying up discretionary spending by average people. In general, there will be inflation in the things we need and deflation in the things we want (they will go unsold). So, the success of companies such as Apple with its iPod/iPad products will be short-lived.
Wages and salaries are about 50% of total personal income (other sources of personal income are benefits, interest, dividends, etc.). This is the largest bucket of income that produces revenue for the government via our tax structure. As wages and salaries are currently the engine of support for the government’s social programs, these must soon collapse. They include food stamps, social security, healthcare, and so forth.
The impact of climate change will magnify this dilemma in ways we can’t foresee too well at present. As a further example, if the Thermohaline circulation of the world’s oceans (like the Gulf Stream) is disrupted, then most of Europe and Asia (and also the northern USA and Canada) will quickly return to ice ages; much like the Younger Dryas event at around 11,000 BP. This resulted in a mini-Ice Age that lasted about 1400 years.
One thing is for sure, the USA is not alone as a nation of soon-to-be paupers; the sovereign debt crises seen in the Eurozone and elsewhere are spreading to other countries as I write this. Throw in the social turmoil such as we are seeing in the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas and things are going to get pretty dire for everyone quickly.
While we applaud the citizens that are uprising against dictatorship in favor of new democratic governments, nothing is being said about the massive destruction to these countries’ infrastructures as we are witnessing in Libya & Syria. Even under the best of conditions, it will take years to recover (if ever). Countries such as Egypt, which depend on tourism, are going to get even more destitute and desperate.
I wish I could see some dynamic that would change this dismal picture, but my crystal ball is totally inadequate to the task. I’m just not smart enough. All I can suggest is that people focus on helping one another where they can, and try to anticipate the arrows of misfortune that are headed their way. This means spending wisely, and hunkering down to weather the storm. If the USA gets sucked into regional wars again, we must make the losers pay for them out of what is left of their national treasure. We can no longer afford to give countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan a free ride.
If we are lucky, when the storm clouds dissipate, they will reveal a world that is very different from the one we are used to, and if people have been wise in the interim, it will be configured to avoid the mistakes of the past. We have made bad choices as a country for decades, and now it seems we have to pay the price.
