Today, I read an unclassified study about the future of modern warfare. To quote from the study:
“The discussion of what major changes we could expect with respect to our ability to see, communicate, think, and decide on the tactical battlefield of 2050 was predicated upon a shared view that this battlefield would be characterized by the vastly increased presence and reliance on: automated processes and decision making; humans with augmented sensing ;and information – related and cognitive capabilities. This breakout group posited that transport (getting capability to the battlefield) would not be a limiting consideration. The group identified and discussed the following 7 interrelated future capabilities that they felt would differentiate the battlefield of the future from current capabilities and engagements:
• Augmented humans
• Automated decision making and autonomous processes
• Misinformation as a weapon
• Micro-targeting
• Large-scale self-organization and collective decision making
• Cognitive modeling of the opponent
• Ability to understand and cope in a contested, imperfect, information
environment.”
This fascinating study neglects an alternate reality that is developing, in my view: The extinction event that I have blogged about here on Vivaldi.net. Now, my disclaimer regarding what follows is that there is evidence that supports the idea of an impending ‘mini-ice age’ such as occurred a few centuries ago (mild), and the Younger Dryas cooling event that occurred in about 14,000 BC (severe-it lasted over 1,000 years). See: Younger Dryas
It is likely (in my view) that a mild version will occur if we are successful in limiting carbon emissions globally. On the other hand, if we don’t succeed in limiting carbon emissions substantially and rebuild ocean ecosystems, humanity will be extinct. For the sake of argument, I will assume a more benign outcome based on people and governments coming to the realization that the environmental crisis will envelop and destroy 95% of life on Earth.
If we continue in our ignorance, greed, and cynical consumption of everything edible and drinkable on the planet, we are doomed for sure. “There’s an established body of work that draws a connection between drought, resource scarcity, and conflict in general,” writes Atlantic’s David A. Graham.
So, here is my version of a likely scenario leading up to the year 2050:
Present through 2020:
Populations globally in increasing numbers flee religious sectarian violence, and lethal heating or environmental degradation in specific regions. Survival camps similar to WWII concentration camps are setup by affected countries and their military establishments, which become very stretched in resources both physical and manpower-wise. Fences and other strict border controls are established.
In 2020 the numbers of displaced people becomes unmanageable, triggering draconian responses by surviving governments. One Billion people will be over the age of 60. Climate change continues unabated as it takes about 200 years for atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide gases to be reabsorbed by the planet in meaningful quantities. In 2020 the world’s oceans are depleted of naturally-occurring fish, crustaceans, seaweed, and so forth that are consumed by human beings. The oceanic Phytoplankton and Cyanobacteria colonies begin a major die-off, and desperate measures commence such as adding iron oxide in the oceans as a fertilizer. Enormous releases of Methane in the Arctic tundra and Methane Hydrates in the world’s oceans begin to be vented into the atmosphere.
2021-2025:
At this point, dreams of national empires, religious domination of the world, universal suffrage, ‘United Nations’, and so forth die as military forces around the world are fully committed to local crises, including stockpiles of nuclear weapons being pilfered by radical groups. At this point, zero dollars are being spent on such things as stealth bombers, and evacuation of coastal populations begin as the melt-off of the world’s icecaps accelerates. On land, glaciers have shrunk to the point that they can no longer feed the major rivers of the world such as the Amazon, Ganges, Mississippi, Congo, Volga, Colorado, Yangtze, and so on, producing only trickles of potable and agricultural water. The tropics become basically uninhabiable, and massive population migrations th cooler climes begins. The Amazon Rainforest and siimiiilar oxygen generators die off. Mass starvation and ensuing controls on food stacks, water, and arable land usage begins. Personal ‘Freedom’ becomes a thing of the past. Oceanic commercial fishing collapses totally and hydroponic gardening and fish farms proliferate.
2026-2030:
Assuming nuclear weapons captured by radical groups are not detonated, National governments around the world collapse, to be replaced by local government, warlords, and dictators. Complex technology such as spaceflight, computing, and medical research can no longer be supported or advanced in any meaningful way. Atmospheric Oxygen drops significantly. Fiefdoms and local aristocracies fight the surviving masses and people wear survival gear and masks when they go outdoors. A few underground cities exist at this point, surviving on pilfered water and food stocks from the surface and home-grown hydroponic systems fed by underground rivers. It is possible that these ‘cities’ will die out within a few years after birth due to newly-evolved pathogens, a lack of sufficient Oxygen in the atmosphere to support animal life, and engineered diseases inadvertently released from cold war research labs that may have devastated survivors on the surface, and found their way underground.
2031-2040:
The great extinction event begins. High order life forms such as mammals and birds die off (the birds more slowly), leaving the world to cockroaches, termites, and other insect species (these can live a long time, presuming that the atmosphere is not completely toxic).
2041-2050:
Lacking humans and other animals on the surface, the insect world begins to evolve to fill the ecological niches that no longer support high-order life such as animals. Human survivors underground (if there are any) will have to deal with a new kind of ‘Spaceship Earth’. Because the absolute number of humans will be so diminished, our long-term survival is in doubt. It will really be an issue of the planet recovering rapidly from the devastation on its surface, and dumping the idea of warfare as a means of resolving disputes.
Viewed from the foregoing perspective, our chances of survival are very low unless we make radical changes in the way humans live and interact with each other and the species with which we share the world. One thing is for sure:
We can no longer tolerate human ignorance and barbarity. Society must change in a way that promotes peace and rational discourse about issues, and allows the individual to excel, and in the process, create and invent better ways of living for the rest of us. In the process, we must deal with our animal impulses by developing a rational approach to being human, After all, as far as we know, we are the first species on the planet to reason and use technology, aren’t we?
