The news today about President Obama using the Clean Air Act to force polluting power plants to reduce Carbon Dioxide emissions made me laugh. This is because governments and automakers are frantically converting their vehicle fleets and building HVAC systems to burn natural gas as a ‘cleaner’ fuel source. But, natural gas is methane (CH4), and “burning” is a reaction with the dioxygen O2 in the air when the mixture of air and methane is heated (with an electrical spark typically or with the flame of a match). The equation of this reaction is CH4 + 2 O2 -> CO2 + 2 H2O; in other words, the exhaust product is Carbon Dioxide and water vapor. Now, Carbon Dioxide is the main villain in human-induced global warming; the very problem they are trying to deal with! And the ‘science’ of climate change is largely collective insanity.
Why?
Because most studies do not take into account any variance in solar luminosity, sun spot activity, changes in the orbital mechanics of the Earth, the Van Allen belts, the rapidly diminishing (and migrating) electromagnetic field that surrounds the Earth, or the prospect for a massive release of Methane Hydrates from the sea floor and the Arctic Tundra. Such studies are useful only in the context for which they were created, in this case, political.
The actual magnitude of the climate shift could be much larger and faster than anticipated, with many small local effects aggregating into massive regional shifts following the mathematics of chaos theory. It has been demonstrated that abrupt climate change from benign and stable to extreme swings of temperature, rainfall, and so forth has occurred many times in our planet’s history. Small catalysts for dramatic events such as the ‘Snowball Earth’ episode about ½ billion years ago (apparently caused by cyanobacteria overpopulation in the oceans) complicate the picture.
The fact is, the potential exists right now for a near-term complete stoppage or reorganization of the oceanic circulation system, and the chain-reaction release of CO2 and Methane Hydrates from both terrestrial and oceanic sources. It should be noted that because Methane Hydrates are about 100 times as effective, greenhouse –wise, than carbon dioxide, their effects will be most apparent. This type of release only needs about a two degree C. increase in the annual global temperature (from today’s value) to get things going. The last time this occurred on a massive scale, over 90% of the planet’s biota went extinct.
Another interesting effect now happening is the beginning of the next cycle of ice ages. The average ‘warm’ interval of approximately 15,000 years is now over. We are in the ‘autumn’ of this 30,000 to 100,000 year cycle. There is a lot of argument as to the mechanism for this, ranging from orbital mechanics and solar physics to obscuring inter-galactic dust clouds. Regardless, the cycles occur relentlessly. Is this cyclic event taken into account in climate models that deal with global warming? I doubt it, as it would be extremely difficult to quantify over a given timeline. So what are we to do?
I am not sure that any organization exists at present to act as a vehicle for change. We only have a few years to get our act together, get it funded, and start planning our future. The scientific and academic communities should fund some focus groups quickly to explore the issues I am raising. Getting boggled down in dubious computer models that can’t handle fractal geometry and chaos, and the typical cross-discipline squabbling between the specialists is not going to get it anymore. Depending on governments and ‘environmental’ organizations for solutions is a hopeless enterprise.
The fix requires the involvement of the social sciences as well as the physical sciences and technologists. It also needs people schooled in General Semantics to clarify everyone’s thinking. Science isn’t necessarily sane (to make a bad joke). Right now, the only clean renewable power sources are wind, waves, solar, and geothermal. Thermonuclear may soon be added to the list.
It seems to me that the ultimate solution may involve regulating the proportion of solar output that reaches Earth’s surface. Like turning the thermostat up & down in our house. Suddenly, we don’t care about computer models or ice ages; what matters is keeping a static thermal balance. This can be accomplished in a number of ways: Deploying in deep space, swarms of self-assembling, self-congregating nanobots whose sole function is to act as a shutter for incoming sunlight, thereby warming and chilling as required. They could be set to turn on and off at a flicker rate exceeding 30 frames/sec, thereby becoming ‘invisible’. Or, perhaps unfurling flexible and inexpensive Fresnel lenses in synchronous orbits that warms specific regions of the surface (if an Ice Age starts) and maybe reshaping the Van Allen belts to control the charged particle environment outside of the atmospheric envelope.
The point is we need a permanent fix for the Earth’s HVAC system. And we need to do it before we run out of the resources that support our existing technical civilization.
